In April 2025, the Trump administration announced a nearly immediate implementation of sweeping new tariffs, with proposed increases that could drive total effective duties on some imports, particularly from China, to up to 145%. Just four days later, following a steep downtrend in various U.S. economic markers, implementation was paused for 90 days, except for tariff rates on imports from China, pushing the tentative enforcement date to early July.
While the tariffs will impact every corner of the economy in some way, we take a look at how they will impact the running space in particular, starting with the most basic trail running necessity — your trail shoes.
Case Study: Your Trail Shoes
The typical trail running shoe is a marvel of complexity, comprising between 30 and 70 individual components depending on the brand and design. Uppers, usually made from mesh and synthetic textiles, are primarily sourced and assembled in Vietnam and Indonesia. Midsoles, crafted from EVA foam or TPU, are often produced in China or Vietnam, while the sticky rubber outsoles with their distinctive lugs tend to come from factories in China, Vietnam, or Cambodia.
Major brands like Nike and Adidas assemble much of their inventory in Vietnam, one of several countries now facing steep new U.S. tariffs: 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia, and as high as 145% for China.
With a pre-tariff retail price of about $155, roughly the industry median, a single pair of trail running shoes could soon cost closer to $220 at checkout.
We are likely to see tariffs affect the cost of other gear, too. Most running packs rely on materials like nylon, polyester, buckles, and zippers sourced from these same countries. A pack that used to cost $150 may now be priced at $219. Apparel isn’t spared, either: a $75 pair of shorts becomes $109.50, a $55 shirt jumps to $80.30, and a $150 rain shell spikes to $219.
In short, if you’re a runner buying two pairs of shoes, one pack, and a few pieces of apparel per year, your annual gear budget could climb by more than $300, all without upgrading a single item.
The cost of your trail shoes, pack, and basic apparel could increase greatly due to the tariffs. Photo: iRunFar/Eszter Horanyi
The Incoming Impact of Tariffs
While the exact timeline and details of the tariffs remain uncertain, the implications for the running industry are far-reaching. The vast majority of athletic footwear sold in the U.S., more than 95%, is manufactured abroad, with over 65% coming from China and another 30% from Vietnam.
Tariffs, should they remain in place for any meaningful length of time, at this scale could fundamentally reshape how running gear is made, sold, and valued in the United States. From rising prices and disrupted supply chains to the survival of small brands, the effects are likely to impact every corner of the sport.
As the impacts of tariffs begin to ripple through the running industry, many of those closest to the issue — brand executives, sourcing managers, and importers — are reluctant to speak publicly. Some fear political retribution; others are wary of making predictions in such an uncertain landscape.
As one industry consultant put it, “This isn’t a moment for bold statements; it’s a moment for quietly hoping your next container clears customs.”
Larger brands may also be staying quiet in hopes of negotiating favorable terms with the current administration, according to two sources.
“A lot of people are afraid of being targeted for backlash. And if your only path to relief is getting an exemption, you’re not going to get it by criticizing the administration. Flattery and silence are safer,” says Eoin Comerford, former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of outdoor brand Moosejaw and current CEO of Outsize Consulting, which advises outdoor brands on strategy and supply chains.
The Landscape: What’s Coming and Why It Matters
Generally in economics, tariffs are imposed on imported goods from foreign countries for the purposes of stimulating the corresponding domestic industries and/or as a punitive measure against foreign nations or industries.
No matter the reason for tariffs, the entity that imports the goods ultimately pays the initial tariff, and then that cost increase is recouped through that product’s supply chain. Ultimately, it most often lands in large part with the consumer.
Sean Scott, CEO and co-founder at COMUNITYmade, which manufactures lifestyle shoes in the U.S, a consultant to U.S. companies on domestic shoe production, and a former executive at several U.S. shoe companies explains: “Retailers can’t absorb those kinds of margin losses without shrinking orders or raising prices. With most athletic footwear made in China and Vietnam, these changes will disproportionately affect small brands and reshape runner behavior across the board.”
The U.S. athletic footwear market is massive, garnering $19.1 billion in revenue in 2023, with running shoes alone accounting for $5 billion of that, according to data collating platforms Statista and NPD Group.
Running shoes accounted for $5 billion in revenue in the U.S. in 2023. Photo: Shutterstock
The 2025 tariffs could drive total effective rates on certain goods, including footwear and accessories, to over 100%, as new duties stack on top of existing ones, where footwear already has some of the highest base tariff rates of any consumer product, ranging from 20 to 37% depending on the materials and construction. This means a shoe that once carried a 20% duty might now be hit with a 60% to 100% effective tariff rate under new rules.
In response, brands are scrambling to get inventory onto U.S. soil before the proposed July 2025 enforcement date, bracing for freight logjams and spiking air cargo rates. Larger brands are absorbing air freight costs or accelerating production, while smaller brands are debating whether to delay or cancel production altogether. Some brands, like Black Diamond, have announced that they will increase prices by 10 to 25% due to tariffs. The Canadian brand Norda also announced it won’t be shipping to the U.S. for now due to an untenable tariff situation. More brands are expected to follow similar suit.
Experts say the situation is unlike anything the industry has faced.
“‘Unprecedented’ might be the most overused word right now, but yes,” says Comerford. “In terms of breadth, speed, and volatility, these tariffs are shifting day-to-day, even hour-to-hour.”
Unlike past trade actions, which often had months or years of phased implementation, the current measures are moving forward with just weeks of lead time, a major break from trade norms established under most prior bilateral trade deals, the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement of 2020, for example.
During a recent podcast interview, Comerford experienced the volatility firsthand: a new tariff announcement came through and the markets reacted in real time, all in the middle of recording the podcast.
“The problem is the uncertainty. Businesses can adapt, but not when they don’t know what they’re adapting to,” said Comerford.
Black Diamond Distance Carbon Z Trekking/Running Poles (front). Black Diamond are one of the companies to have already announced price increases as a result of the tariffs. Photo: iRunFar/Eszter Horanyi
Small Brands on the Brink
Tariffs like the ones proposed might be most detrimental to small running brands, according to experts and brand owners.
Over 98% of footwear companies in the U.S. are classified as small businesses, according to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a trade association representing the vast majority of the U.S. shoe industry, and nearly all of them rely on imported materials or finished goods. Unlike large brands that can diversify suppliers and potentially negotiate better freight terms, small companies often depend on a single company partner.
“Big brands have leverage. They can push a factory to rush production or shift to air freight. Small companies just get pushed to the back of the line, or priced out entirely,” said Comerford.
Many of these small players also operate with low or no outside capital, meaning any disruption in cash flow because of tariffs can jeopardize the companies’ very survival.
“The cost of importing our next order would exceed our available cash,” said Michael Krajicek, founder of the direct-to-consumer footwear brand Atreyu Running Company. Atreyu manufactures entirely in China, leaving the brand fully exposed to being operationally derailed by these new tariffs. The company is now weighing whether to delay or cancel future production entirely until the policy landscape stabilizes.
Victor Ballesteros, CEO and founder of Victory Sportdesign, a small company that produces aid station bags for ultrarunners, says small and mid-sized gear makers are being hit hard. “We buy in smaller quantities due to cash flow and warehouse space. That means each item has a higher baseline cost, and when you stack tariffs on top of that, margins shrink fast.”
Companies like Atreyu and Victory Sportdesign typically do not have the volume to absorb rising tariff rates, and worry that passing them on to consumers means losing that base entirely. “Our relationship with our customers is paramount. My biggest fear is that these tariffs will not be eliminated, and I will lose the ability to confidently fund that next “victory” and jeopardize our ability to operate,” said Krajicek.
Brands are rushing to get product out of factories, front-loading fall and early winter inventory which would normally ship much later, creating congestion both in ocean and air freight. As demand for air freight increases, rates have doubled and might triple, especially for high-volume items like shoes and apparel, according to Comerford.
Retailers on the ground might soon face delays not just from cost, but also due to the unavailability of shipping slots or materials stuck in customs or warehouses as tariff rules evolve.
Sticker Shock
“Sticker shock will kill sales,” says Scott. “But everyone in the chain will share the burden: factories, brands, and consumers.”
Tariffs don’t just add a flat fee; they cascade through the retail pricing structure. According to Comerford, a $10 increase at the factory level can translate to a $40 increase at retail due to markups across the supply chain. Small brands will be left even more vulnerable to price hikes when the cost of producing smaller runs of products is already high.
Retailers, which typically operate on tight margins, can’t absorb additional costs. According to experts, brands may address the price increase in various ways. They may add a “tariff surcharge,” similar to a fuel surcharge, to cover the increased cost. They could quietly increase the manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP), or re-engineer products to meet existing price points with cheaper materials.
The San Francisco Running Company. Retailers like this provide a valuable service and operate on tight margins as it is, and won’t be able to absorb the cost of tariffs. Photo: iRunFar/Bryon Powell
Fall 2025 collections will likely be the first wave of products with full tariff impacts baked in, as Spring 2025 inventory is mostly already in the U.S.
“People think the tariffs are being paid by [a foreign country], said Scott. “They’re not. They’re paid by the importer. The cost lands on the brand, then the consumer. There’s a disconnect in how we talk about this.”
The Challenge of Domestic Manufacturing
Scott says ramping up American production of running shoes is a complicated proposition. Citing confidentiality agreements, Scott declined to name the brands he currently consults with, but noted that several large players are conducting early-stage U.S. manufacturing trials, including efforts around 3D-printed midsoles and domestic foam and rubber production.
Scott’s own company, COMUNITYmade, can currently produce about 10,000 pairs of shoes per month, just a fraction of the output required to support a single model from a major brand. According to Ballesteros, whose company is experimenting with hybrid manufacturing, producing small-batch, custom gear domestically while continuing to make bulk product overseas, scaling that infrastructure will take time and capital.
At present, domestic facilities can’t come close to matching China’s output. And with tariff rate volatility casting a long and unknown shadow, Scott says the large-scale investment needed to build domestic capacity simply isn’t materializing.
“Give us a three-year commitment, and we could scale from 10,000 to 100,000 pairs a month,” Scott said. “But we need investment and stability to get there.”
If the goal of current trade policy is truly to increase domestic manufacturing, Scott argues, it would require more carrots alongside the sticks — a long-term runway for brands to plan and invest strategically, rather than a punitive tariff system steeped in uncertainty that undermines the very conditions required for onshore production.
Domestic factories require multi-million dollar builds and heavy automation. Few brands want to or are able to invest that without long-term tariff guarantees.
“On paper, tariffs are supposed to encourage domestic manufacturing by making imports more expensive. But that assumes everything else supports manufacturing, and right now, it doesn’t,” said Comerford.
Labor costs in the U.S. may range from $30 to $40 an hour to attract factory workers in a tight labor market, according to Comerford. Additionally, constructing footwear requires skilled labor that the U.S. workforce isn’t prepared to meet at scale. Even if you assemble shoes in the U.S., importing raw materials like EVA foam, TPU, and rubber from overseas would still incur tariffs.
The Ethical Upside to Domestic Manufacturing
“Things should cost more, and we should buy fewer of them,” said Scott, who maintains that the pre-tariff prices of trail shoes and other apparel inaccurately reflect value, and actually reflect an artificially cheap product.
“There are 20 to 50 people touching every shoe. For it to cost $150 is a logistical and ethical illusion built on artificially suppressed labor costs,” said Scott. “Every part of that shoe was touched by a skilled worker. And many of them [operating in foreign countries] weren’t paid living wages.”
Brands like New Balance and Red Wing, which have used domestic manufacturing, have historically focused on limited-edition, high-end domestic lines as opposed to broad commercial models.
According to Scott, domestic shoes would need to retail at $200 to $300 to remain viable, but the increased cost would come with upsides, such as ethical wages and environmental protection that would be guaranteed via U.S. labor laws and which are not guaranteed in overseas production.
The New Balance FuelCell Rebel v4 (left) is a favorite for tempo runs on the road. New Balance is one of the brands to historically avail of U.S. manufacturing. Photo: iRunFar/Eszter Horanyi
An Uncertain Future
While much about the tariffs and their implementation, such as the percentages, the timeline, and whether they’ll be levied at all, remains uncertain, all the sources for this article forecasted that they would result in higher prices and reduced consumer spending.
“Also, companies are trying to walk a fine line,” said Comerford. “Not upsetting the administration, while also needing to explain the impact to shareholders. I think upcoming earnings calls [where public companies disclose their financial results] are going to be very interesting.”
Small brands, too are waiting to see what the final numbers and timeline will be. “Many companies are still producing, but holding everything at the factory, trying to figure out their next move,” said Ballesteros.
According to Krajicek, the threat to small brands and businesses is a direct threat to the cultural fabric of the sport. Running has always existed as a niche sport propelled mainly by its people, communities, and events rather than just the big brands chasing profit within it.
“Today, with noisy algorithm-driven marketing and a fast-paced consumer culture, that ethos feels increasingly distant,” said Krajicek.
“Tariffs like these will disrupt the giants, but they also risk erasing the businesses that offer a human, values-driven alternative. If the underdog disappears, so does the choice to support brands that exist for more than just scale. I have a feeling a lot of people would feel that loss, even if they didn’t see it coming.”
Call for Comments
How else do you see the tariffs affecting the running world?
