Once again, the year 2024 was quite a year in the world of trail running and ultrarunning, and I fully expect 2025 to be another doozy!
It is in that context, in this, my last column of 2024, that I am sharing my five 2025 predictions for the sport in the year ahead.
1. Explosion of Sub-Ultra-Distance Events
We’ve seen it coming for a few years now, but I believe 2025 will be the year we see an explosion in the overall popularity of sub-ultra-distance trail races. Series like the Golden Trail World Series and the Sonoran Desert Cup have seen significant growth over the past few years, and I think the attention paid to these events, combined with their accessibility to the masses, will lead to sub-ultra trail races hitting a tipping point in 2025.
Joyline Chepngeno, the 2024 Golden Trail World Series Finals women’s Final winner. Photo: Golden Trail Series/Grand Finals/@RisingStory
2. No Finishers at the Barkley Marathons
The 2024 version of the Barkley Marathons was a historic run with five finishers including Jasmin Paris, the first woman to finish all five loops of the Barkley. The previous record for finishers was three, which has been done twice, once in 2012 and again in 2023. Knowing race director Gary Cantrell, I can’t imagine he wants history to repeat itself. My guess would be that the 2025 course will be even tougher, the starting date and time less favorable, and the placement of the books much more difficult in an attempt to reduce the number of finishers.
3. The Resurgence of Jim Walmsley
After a challenging year in which he finished only one major race and spent much of the latter part of the year recovering from injury, I am predicting that American Jim Walmsley will return to racing with a vengeance in 2025. With several highly successful men already in the Western States 100 field along with Jim, and a few more yet to be named, I suspect that Jim will be highly motivated to win Western States, as it is likely to be the most competitive men’s field in race history, and possibly even more competitive than UTMB, for the first time in at least a decade.
Jim Walmsley, 2023 UTMB champion. Photo: iRunFar/Meghan Hicks
4. Reality Sets In on High-Carbohydrate Fueling
Throughout 2024, it seemed like not a day went by that we didn’t hear about the virtues of high-carbohydrate fueling. In fact, on my trip to The Running Event in Austin, Texas, last month, it seemed like every nutrition brand on the trade show floor was touting their new, high-carb products. Indeed, high-carb fueling has had a profound impact on the front of the pack in many long ultras.
That said, I predict that 2025 will be the year that many middle and back of the packers, looking to emulate the elites, realize that the high-carb approach used by “them” doesn’t necessarily work for “us.”
5. Cocodona 250 Mile Implements a Lottery
In just four years, the Cocodona 250 Mile has become the most popular 200-plus-mile race in North America. At the time of this writing, the race has reached its capacity with 275 runners entered and an additional 411 entrants on the waitlist. While 200-plus-mile races are nothing new on the trail running and ultrarunning circuit, this one seems to have raised the bar in ways that were inconceivable just four years ago.
It is in that context that I think the event will be forced to implement a lottery in 2025 for the 2026 race, as there are just way more people who want to run the race than can be accommodated in the current circumstances.
There you have it, my predictions for trail running and ultrarunning in 2025. See you next year!
Bottoms up!
Harry Subertas won the 2024 Cocodona 250 Mile via a come-from-behind performance where he only took over the race lead with a few miles left in the race. Photo: Howie Stern
AJW’s Beer of the Week
This week’s beer of the week comes from Rogue Ales in Newport, Oregon. Batsquatch is a new hazy IPA that successfully blends the classic West Coast IPA tradition with the ever-expanding hazy approach. At 6.7%, it is not for the faint of heart, but is, nonetheless, a super-smooth drinking new approach to a classic variety.
Call for Comments
- What are your predictions for 2025?
- What are your hopes for your own year in running?
