Congratulations to all of you chosen for the 2021 Hardrock Hundred Endurance Run! This article breaks down the results of today’s lottery for the run’s 2021 edition.
Let’s start with some statistics and background information. After two straight cancelations, this year’s lottery was quite different as “Nevers,” that is all runners who’ve never finished Hardrock, were rolled over from the 2019 Hardrock lottery, while “Veterans,” runners who’ve finished Hardrock five or more times, and “Everyone Else” (hereinafter “Else”), runners who’ve finished between one and four times (and a couple grandfathered exceptions), were freshly drawn for Hardrock 2021.
With that in mind, there are 230 entrants in the lottery for next year’s Hardrock. There are 186 Else’s entered in the lottery (after accounting for the automatic entry of 2018 champs Jeff Browning and Sabrina Stanley) with a total of 900 tickets, with the number of tickets for each runner allocated as one ticket for each of a runner’s finishes, one ticket for each of a runner’s DNSs since last starting, one ticket for applying, and tickets for various service criteria (full rules). Else’s with one ticket had a 7.9% chance of getting in while the one runner with 11 tickets had a 59.6% chance of getting in. The 44 entrants in the Veteran’s lottery had a total of 425 tickets with one ticket for each a runner’s finishes as well as for various service criteria. The eight Veteran holders of the minimum of five tickets had a 44.5% chance of getting in, while the lone Veteran with 27 tickets had a 95.6% chance of getting in. (Odds and total ticket numbers cited were calculated prior to one runner moving from Veteran to Else and another having a service ticket added. Those changes did not materially change the odds.)
The 2021 event will start 145 runners. Those 145 starters will come from an original pool of 155 runners made up of 28 Veterans, 62 Elses, and 65 Nevers, a change from the previous mix of 33 Veterans, 45 Nevers, and 67 Elses. The first 10 runners to withdraw from the race will not be replaced from their respective categories waitlists. Replenishment of the field from the waitlists will being once the field is down to 145 runners. Historically, up to five runners were chosen ahead of time by the Run Director, Dale Garland, and announced among the names chosen in the lottery. There are no new Run Director picks in the 2021 lottery.
In addition to entrants drawn in the lottery, waitlist names were also drawn into three separate division-specific waitlists. For perspective, in 2018, 3 people got off the Veteran waitlist and into the race, 6 people from the Never waitlist, and 24 people from the Else waitlist. For the 2017 edition, the waitlists eventually yielded entrant spots 10 deep in the Veteran division, 9 deep in the Never division, and 6 deep in the Else division. For the 2016 edition, the waitlist went to 4 deep for the Veterans (which included all of the Veterans on the waitlist that year), 4 deep for Never, and 8 deep for Else.
Even though this event is called a run and not a race, the front end is, in reality, competitive in nature while still seeming to maintain the cooperative family spirit which Hardrock prides itself upon. Below we document the men and women who were selected in the lottery today who we think will be the main 2021 contenders. We also mention who is on a waitlist with a reasonable chance to get in.
The men’s race will feature 2018 champion Jeff Browning returning to defend his title with two Hardrock debutants, 3-time UTMB champion François D’Haene and 2-time Ultra-Trail Mount Fuji champion Dylan Bowman, likely being his main challengers.
The 2018 women’s champion Sabrina Stanley has elected to use her auto-entry to return this year, and her closest competition with likely come from 2019 UTMB champ Courtney Dauwalter who excels in brutally difficult races, while three-time Hardrock champion Darcy Piceu has the best chance of joining them on the podium.
Notable Men’s 2021 Hardrock 100 Entrants
There is only one way to gain an auto-entry into Hardrock, and that is by winning the prior Hardrock. Jeff Browning will be returning to defend his title in 2021.
Rollover Men’s Entrants from December 2018 Lottery
Below are the notable men who gained entrance via the 2018 lottery for the 2019 race, but, as Nevers or by winning the prior Hardrock, retained entry into the 2021 race.
- Dylan Bowman – 3rd 2020 Transgrancanaria; 1st 2016 & 2018 Ultra-Trail Mount Fuji; 7th 2017 UTMB
- Jeff Browning – 1st 2018 Hardrock; 4th 2016 Hardrock; 9th 2019 & 5th 2018 Western States 100
- François D’Haene – 1st 2012, 2014 & 2017 UTMB; 1st 2013, 2014, 2016 & 2018 Diagonale des Fous; 2nd 2018 Western States 100; 1st 2019 Madeira Island Ultra Trail
- Trevor Fuchs – 1st 2020 Hurt 100; 2nd 2019 Bear 100; 1st 2016 & 2017 Wasatch 100
- Ryan Smith – 1st 2019 Leadville 100; 1st 2018 High Lonesome 100 Mile; 9th 2015 UTMB
Men’s Entrants from the December 2020 Lottery
- Julien Chorier – 4th 2019 Transgrancanaria; 9th 2018 TDS; 17th 2019 & 8th 2016 UTMB; 2nd 2014 Hardrock 100; 1st 2011 Hardrock
- Jamil Coury – 9th 2017 Hardrock; 4th 2018 Tahoe 200
- Dom Grossman – 3rd 2019 & 2017 Angeles Crest 100; 3rd 2018 Pine to Palm 100
- Grant Guise – 13th 2017 & 10th 2016 Hardrock 100
- Troy Howard – 3rd 2018, 2nd 2013 & 2009 Hardrock 100
- Mike Wardian – 11th 2018 & 21st 2017 Hardrock 100
Notable Women’s 2021 Hardrock 100 Entrants
There is only one way to gain an auto-entry into Hardrock, and that is by winning the prior Hardrock. Sabrina Stanley will be returning to defend her title in 2021.
Rollover Women’s Entrants from December 2018 Lottery
Below are the notable women who gained entrance via the 2018 lottery for the 2019 race, but, as Nevers or by winning the prior Hardrock, retained entry into the 2021 race.
- Courtney Dauwalter – 1st 2019 UTMB; 1st 2019 Madeira Island Ultra Trail; 1st 2018 Western States 100; 1st 2018 Ultra-Trail Mount Fuji 100 Mile
- Alyson Kirk – 1st 2019 Lone Star, Helbender, Cruel Jewel & Old Cascadia 100 Milers; 1st 2018 Lone Star, Hellbender & Cloudsplitter 100 Milers
- Sabrina Stanley – 1st 2018 Hardrock 100; 2 Nolan’s 14 women’s supported FKT (2 x 2020); 3rd 2017 Western States 100; 1st 2019 HURT 100 Mile
Unfortunately, Andrea Huser (2nd 2016 UTMB; 1st 2016 & 2017 Diagonale des Fous; and so much more) would have rolled in as a Never, but she recently passed away in a fall.
Women’s Entrants from the December 2020 Lottery
- Meghan Hicks – 2 Nolan’s 14 women’s supported FKT (2016, 2020); 5th 2016 Hardrock 100
- Darcy Piceu – 3-time Hardrock 100 champion; 2nd 2017 Hardrock; 1st 2018 Andorra Ultra Trail; 1st 2018 Angeles Crest 100
Notable Waitlisted Men with at Least a Remote Chance of Getting In
- Mick Jurynec – 10th 2018 & 8th 2014 Hardrock 100; 1st 2019 Superior 100 (4th on Else waitlist)
- Bryan Williams – 6th 2016 Hardrock 100; Colorado Trail (Collegiate West variant) supported FKT (9th on Else Waitlist)
(We’re only listing runners from the top 25 of the Else waitlist and top 10 of the Never and Veteran waitlists. We’ll add additional runners should there be highly abnormal movement on any of the waitlists. We’ll post the original full Else waitlist and original Never and Veteran waitlists as they’re available.)
Notable Waitlisted Women with at Least a Remote Chance of Getting In
- Darla Askew – 3rd 2018, 6th 2017, 4th 2016 & 3rd 2015 Hardrock (9th on Veteran Waitlist)
(We’re only listing runners from the top 25 of the Else waitlist and top 10 of the Never and Veteran waitlists. We’ll add additional runners should there be highly abnormal movement on any of the waitlists. We’ll post the original full Else waitlist and original Never and Veteran waitlists as they’re available.)
Call For Comments
- Who are you most excited about running the 2021 Hardrock 100?
- Who are your picks as favorites? Did we miss anyone who should be on these lists?
