Here are the results of our 2015 Western States Prediction Contest. Before we move on, we wanted to thank Mitchell Goodman for being the programming brains behind this contest for all seven years!
We’re only posting place-specific rankings through the top three. (For a refresher on the rules, check out the contest entry page.) Read on to find out who won the contest, and who did the best at picking the men’s and women’s fields individually.
The Winners
Thank you again to CLIF Bar, Inov-8, Flora, Julbo, and artist Maggie Tides for providing the great prizes for the contest. Without them, the only thing to come out of the contest would be bragging rights. On to the winners!
Aaron Ellison (10 points) correctly picked Rob Krar to win, Seth Swanson to take second, Thomas Lorblanchet to place fifth, and Julien Chorier to take sixth. He got three points for picking Ian Sharman to place fourth (7th). Sally McRae in seventh was his only dead-on women’s pick. He had one point for picking Stephanie Howe second (3rd), Nicole Studer for fifth (6th). He got two points for picking Kaci Lickteig fourth (2nd) and three points for picking Robin Watkins eighth (11th). Aaron takes home a massive prize pack from CLIF including their new Organic Energy Food, a prize pack from Inov-8 including a pair of Inov-8 TerraClaw 250s or RaceUltra 290v2s, prizes from Flora including a bottle of Udo’s Oil, a Western States triptych by Maggie Tides, and a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
Aaron Ellison (10 points) correctly picked Rob Krar to win, Seth Swanson to take second, Thomas Lorblanchet to place fifth, and Julien Chorier to take sixth. He got three points for picking Ian Sharman to place fourth (7th). Sally McRae in seventh was his only dead-on women’s pick. He had one point for picking Stephanie Howe second (3rd), Nicole Studer for fifth (6th). He got two points for picking Kaci Lickteig fourth (2nd) and three points for picking Robin Watkins eighth (11th). Aaron takes home a massive prize pack from CLIF including their new Organic Energy Food, a prize pack from Inov-8 including a pair of Inov-8 TerraClaw 250s or RaceUltra 290v2s, prizes from Flora including a bottle of Udo’s Oil, a Western States triptych by Maggie Tides, and a pair of Julbo We had a three-way top-line tie for second place with Clayton DeLosier, Rob Greenhaw, and Tom Welker each scoring 11 points. Incredibly, all three picked Paul Terranova and Nikki Kimball as the master’s winners, so the first tiebreaker is moot. More incredibly, both Clayton and Tom (Sorry, Rob!) nailed the second tiebreaker, the accuracy of overall winners picks. Clayton, you’re our runner-up by virtue of a coin toss.
- Clayton DeLosier (11 points) correctly picked Magdalena Boulet and Rob Krar for the wins as well as Seth Swanson for second. He was one spot off with Stephanie Howe for second (3rd), Aliza Lapierre for third (4th), and Julien Chorier for seventh (6th). Clayton received two points each for picking Kaci Lickteig fourth (2nd), Emma Roca seventh (5th), Ian Sharman fifth (seventh), and David Laney sixth (8th). For taking second, Clayton will bring home a big prize pack from CLIF including CLIF Bloks, gear from Inov-8 including a Race Elite Vest, prizes from Flora including a big bottle of 7 Sources, and pair of sunglasses from Julbo.
- Tom Welker (11 points) correctly picked Magdalena Boulet for the women’s win, but accrued points for the rest of the women. He received one point each for picking Stephanie Howe second (3rd), Kaci Lickteig third (second), and Emma Roca fourth (fifth), as well as Nikki Kimball for sixth (10th). On the men’s side, Tom correctly picked Rob Krar for the win and Ian Sharman for seventh. He got a point each for picking Seth Swanson third (2nd) and Thomas Lorblanchet sixth (5th). Picking Paul Terranova for eighth (10th) gave him another two points. Tom will be receiving plenty of CLIF products including CLIF Shot Gel, a load of supplements from Flora, some Inov-8 kit, and a pair of Julbo sunglasses.
Clayton DeLosier (11 points) correctly picked Magdalena Boulet and Rob Krar for the wins as well as Seth Swanson for second. He was one spot off with Stephanie Howe for second (3rd), Aliza Lapierre for third (4th), and Julien Chorier for seventh (6th). Clayton received two points each for picking Kaci Lickteig fourth (2nd), Emma Roca seventh (5th), Ian Sharman fifth (seventh), and David Laney sixth (8th). For taking second, Clayton will bring home a big prize pack from CLIF including CLIF Bloks, gear from Inov-8 including a Race Elite Vest, prizes from Flora including a big bottle of 7 Sources, and pair of sunglasses from Julbo.
Tom Welker (11 points) correctly picked Magdalena Boulet for the women’s win, but accrued points for the rest of the women. He received one point each for picking Stephanie Howe second (3rd), Kaci Lickteig third (second), and Emma Roca fourth (fifth), as well as Nikki Kimball for sixth (10th). On the men’s side, Tom correctly picked Rob Krar for the win and Ian Sharman for seventh. He got a point each for picking Seth Swanson third (2nd) and Thomas Lorblanchet sixth (5th). Picking Paul Terranova for eighth (10th) gave him another two points. Tom will be receiving plenty of CLIF products including CLIF Shot Gel, a load of supplements from Flora, some Inov-8 kit, and a pair of Julbo sunglasses.
Jeff Collins is our random grand-prize winner for which he gets the same loaded prize pack as Aaron Ellison minus the art. Four more random winners–Chris Robbins, Giff Walters, Chris Neoh, and Leah Lanier–win a box of CLIF Organic Energy Food.
Maggie Tides Western States 100 course Triptych.
The Overall Contest Field
Even with all the turmoil at the front the men’s field, we had a record number of entrants score 50 or fewer points. Here’s a breakdown of the number of folks tallying 50 or fewer points other the past six years: 2009 – 46, 2010 – 107, 2011 – 274, 2012 – 446, 2013 – 694, 2014 – 683, 2015 – 807.
This year’s Group-Think Predictions were much further off than in past years with a total of 31 points: 12 from the women and 19 from the men, which puts it just above average for this year’s individual entrants. The annual group-think prediction’s performance ranged from 14 to 20 in past years.
Below are the full results:
Women’s Predictions
This year, two men scored ZERO on the women’s side! Matt Bucklin correctly predicted the finish of Magdalena Boulet (1st), Stephanie Howe (3rd), Aliza Lapierre (4th), Emma Roca (5th), and Caroline Boller (8th). Anthony Forsyth was spot on with his picks of Magdalena, Howe, Roca, Nicole Studer (6th), and Sally McRae (7th). Both of you get your choice of an iRunFar running hat or visor, if you’d like one.
Men’s Predictions
Gregg Holst was the low scorer on the men’s side with 2 points. He correctly predicted Rob Krar (1st), Seth Swanson (2nd), Julien Chorier (6th), and Ian Sharman (7th). His two points come from pick Jared Hazen for fifth (3rd). Gregg, you get your choice of an iRunFar hat or visor, if you’d like one.
Final Words
Thanks to the more than 1,164 individuals who took part in the contest… more than triple the total number of starters (371) in this year’s Western States! We had a lot of fun bringing it to you and hope you had a lot of fun participating. We’ll bring you more fun contests in the future.
