Here are the results of our 2014 Western States Prediction Contest. Before we move on, we wanted to thank Mitchell Goodman for being the programming brains behind this contest for all six years!
We’re only posting place-specific rankings through the top three. (For a refresher on the rules, check out the contest entry page.) Read on to find out who won the contest and what they win, and who did the best at picking the men’s and women’s fields individually.
The Winners
Thank you to Inov-8 and Julbo for providing the great prizes for the contest. Without them, the only thing to come out of the contest would be bragging rights. On to the winners!
Gary Ehrmann (6 points) wins a pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, his choice of an Inov-8 Race Elite Shell, and the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, as well as his choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses. Gary correctly picked Rob Krar to win and Ian Sharman to take sixth. He got one point each for picking Dylan Bowman for second (3rd), Ryan Sandes for fourth (5th), Max King for fifth (4th), and (for good measure) Alex Varner for eighth (7th). On the women’s side, he correctly picked Stephanie Howe to win, Pam Smith for fourth, while he received one point for picking Kaci Lickteig fifth (6th), Meghan Arbogast for seventh (8th), and Denise Bourassa for eighth (7th). He picked Nick Clark and Meghan Arbogast for the masters wins. As the runner-up had the same point total and masters picks, Gary wins on the basis of correctly picking both winners.- Eric Lee (6 points) wins a pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, and his choice of an Inov-8 shirt, as well as his choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses. For the women, he correctly picked Nikki Kimball for fifth and Kaci Lickteig for sixth. He was one off in picking Larisa Dannis for third (2nd), Nathalie Mauclair for fourth (3rd), and Meghan Arbogast for seventh (8th). On the men’s side, he was correct in picking Rob Krar for the win, Dylan Bowman for third, and Ian Sharman for sixth, while he was one spot off in picking Ryan Sandes for fourth (5th) and two spots off with Max King for second (4th). He also picked Nick Clark and Meghan Arbogast for the masters wins. He took second based on the second tie-breaker in which he correctly picked Rob Krar for the men’s win, but missed in picking Emily Harrison for the women.
- James Chyllo (7 points) wins a pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, his choice of Inov-8 shirt, his choice of Inov-8 running shorts, as well as his choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
Gary Ehrmann (6 points) wins a pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, his choice of an Inov-8 Race Elite Shell, and the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, as well as his choice of a pair of Julbo 
Alexander Nunn is our random grand prize winner. He’ll receive a pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, his choice of Inov-8 Race Elite Shell, and the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, as well as his or choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses. Two more random winners–Mark Akehurst and Erik Schulte–win a pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, as well as their choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
The Overall Contest Field
The overall tallies among the top entrants were the lowest in contest history. However, for the first time in contest history, the many curveballs among tried-and-true ultrarunners at the front of field led to a slight decrease in the total of entrants scoring fewer than 50 points. Here’s a breakdown of the number of folks tallying 50 or fewer points other the past six years: 2009 – 46, 2010 – 107, 2011 – 274, 2012 – 446, 2013 – 694, 2014 – 683.
The annual group-think prediction’s performance were in-line with past years, when it’s ranged from 14 to 20. This year’s Group-Think Predictions totaled 17. That means 133 people (13%) picked better than the combined masses. The group think’s accuracy was nearly equal on the men’s and women’s side with 8 and 9 points, respectively.
Below are the full results:
Men’s Predictions
Three entrants tied with tallying only two points on the men’s side: Nate Dunn, Nate Boulin, and Martin Speece. All three correctly chose Dylan Bowman to take third. Nate Dunn benefited from a Brett-Rivers-for-eighth pick. You’ve earned your choice of an iRunFar running hat or visor if you’d like one.
Women’s Predictions
Steve Yamamota was our top prognosticator for the women. He correctly picked Stephanie Howe to win, Nathalie Mauclair for third, Nikki Kimball for fifth, Kaci Lickteig for sixth, and Meghan Arbogast for eighth. You’ve earned your choice of an iRunFar hat or visor if you’d like one.
Final Words
Thanks to the more than 1,000 individuals who took part in the contest… well over double the total number of entrants in Western States! We had a lot of fun bringing it to you and hope you had a lot of fun participating. We’ll bring you more fun contests in the future.
