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2012 Western States 100 Group Think Predictions

The wisdom of the masses predict the 2012 Western States 100 winners and top finishers.
By on June 22, 2012 | Comments
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Western States 100 logoFor the fourth straight year, we’ve tabulated and taken a look at all the votes cast in our Western States 100 prediction contest. In the past, these “group think” predictions have generally been better than individual pickers. So, if you’re looking for a solid relative ranking of this year’s Western States 100 competitors, look no further.

How the Group Think Predictions Work
Back to the predictions. Below, we attempt to apply a hive-mentality approach to see how the men’s and women’s fields play out when the collective thoughts of nearly 453 contest participants are accumulated. In addition to showing how many picks the top runners received for each place, we ranked the runners by MVP-style voting (i.e., 8 points for first, 7 points for second, and so on). Both the men’s and women’s tables show all WS runners who accumulated 10 or more points. Read on to see how the masses predicted the outcome for the Big Dance this weekend as well as some iRunFar analysis of those predictions and commentary on the race.

The Just Rewards
Montrail logoThanks again to all who participated in the contest! We hope you run away from it with a pair of Montrail trail shoes and some Mountain Hardwear apparel. Oh, and best of luck to all the runners the weekend. Remember to follow us on Twitter to receive updates on the leaders throughout the day.

2012 Western States 100 Men’s Field

2012 Western States 100 Group Think - men

Interesting Men’s Field Notes

  • With the most total points as well as the most votes to finish first, second, and third, Mike Wolfe is the iRunFar readers’ pick to win this year’s Western States 100.
  • While there is good separation between them, the total points as well as the votes to finish top three suggest the public thinks four guys – Wolfe, Ryan Sandes, Nick Clark, and Timothy Olson – have a best chance to reach the podium this weekend.
  • The number of men receiving 10 or more points – 28 – was the same exact number as last year. Overall, 71 men received at least one selection, down from 78 last year.
  • [Sadly, there are only so many hours in the day, and this is where my analysis ends for now. Time to get two hours of sleep before waking to cover the race. – Bryon]

2012 Western States 100 Women’s Field

2012 Western States 100 womens group think analysis

Call for Comments

  • So what do you all think about the group prediction?
  • How would you change your picks based on what you know now?
  • Want to make any of your predictions public? If so, leave a comment!
  • Any statisticians want to dive into this?

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Bryon Powell

Bryon Powell is the Founding Editor of iRunFar. He’s been writing about trail running, ultrarunning, and running gear for more than 15 years. Aside from iRunFar, he’s authored the books Relentless Forward Progress: A Guide to Running Ultramarathons and Where the Road Ends: A Guide to Trail Running, been a contributing editor at Trail Runner magazine, written for publications including Outside, Sierra, and Running Times, and coached ultrarunners of all abilities. Based in Silverton, Colorado, Bryon is an avid trail runner and ultrarunner who competes in events from the Hardrock 100 Mile just out his front door to races long and short around the world, that is, when he’s not fly fishing or tending to his garden.